Look like it 'Dunn' already

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

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Dear Editor,

Trinidadian pollster Derek Ramsamooj released the results of recently conducted polls to the media last weeek.

Coincidentally, he's the only pollster who accurately predicted the Jamaica Labour Party victory in our last general election.

On Thursday, October 19, 2017 he was on Cliff Hughes' On Target during which he gave details of his two polls commissioned by the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) done in September and October. In both of his polls the JLP candidate Norman Dunn had a lead — 11 and 18 percentage-point lead for September and October, respectively. It's important to note that the margin of error is plus or minus five per cent.

Results of polls conducted on September 11-19: Norman Dunn 54 per cent versus Shane Alexis 45 per cent.

Results of polls conducted on October 16-17: Norman Dunn 53 per cent versus Shane Alexis 35 per cent

Last poll in depth numbers and analysis:

• 927 (53 per cent) residents of St Mary South Eastern with a poll size of 1,738 preferred Norman Dunn.

• 607 (35 per cent) residents preferred Shane Alexis

• 204 (12 per cent) residents were still undecided

According to the October poll, JLP leads in Castleton, Richmond, and even Annotto Bay. The Bellefield Division, a People's National Party fortress, is now a battleground division.

Worse-case scenarios for Dr Dunn with the minus five error, and give Dr Alexis all the undecided voters, he will still have a one percentage-point lead.

Two factors that may may have led to a dramatic decrease in Doctor Shane Alexis's numbers are the citizenship saga or party leader Peter Phillips.

According to Ramsamooj's latest poll, over 50 per cent of the correspondents want their next Member of Parliament to be a 'born ya' Jamaican.

With regard to leadership, Andrew Holness leads Peter Phillips in the trust and initiative departments by 12 and 20 per cent respectively. Peter Phillips can't bring him over the line or even close. And “Suga Shane” using a 'new and different' campaign slogan can't save him.

This by-election is for the JLP to lose. I never needed a poll to tell me that the PNP is way behind in Castleton, Richmond and Annotto Bay. It has been clear from the trends from the general to the local government elections.

But a caution to Labourites, don't be complacent by following polls; election are won on the day, not by polls.

Teddylee Gray

Ocho Rios, St Ann

teddylee.gray@gmail.com

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